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金融危机的风险点

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月23日 07:25:43
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(  中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(学)(术)(顾)(问)(林)(毅)(夫)(
  重)(视)(地)(方)(债)(务)(风)(险)(
  改)(革)(开)(放)(30多)(年)(来)(,中)(国)(取)(得)(了)(了)(不)(起)(的)(成)(绩)(,是)(唯)(一)(没)(有)(发)(生)(严)(重)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(新)(兴)(大)(国)(。展)(望)(未)(来)(,我)(们)(仍)(然)(具)(有)(相)(当)(大)(的)(发)(展)(潜)(力)(。当)(然)(,居)(安)(思)(危)(,不)(能)(因)(为)(拥)(有)(有)(利)(条)(件)(,就)(不)(高)(度)(重)(视)(可)(能)(出)(现)(的)(风)(险)(。国)(内)(学)(界)(和)(国)(外)(一)(些)(关)(心)(中)(国)(的)(人)(,普)(遍)(认)(为)(房)(地)(产)(和)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(是)(引)(爆)(中)(国)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(风)(险)(点)(。这)(两)(个)(领)(域)(的)(风)(险)(之)(所)(以)(会)(引)(发)(大)(的)(金)(融)(经)(济)(危)(机)(,主)(要)(与)(金)(融)(体)(系)(有)(关)(。目)(前)(,大)(部)(分)(的)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(和)(地)(方)(政)(府)(是)(通)(过)(银)(行)(或)(影)(子)(银)(行)(融)(资)(的)(,如)(果)(它)(们)(到)(期)(不)(能)(还)(本)(付)(息)(,就)(会)(造)(成)(一)(些)(金)(融)(系)(统)(的)(问)(题)(。特)(别)(是)(不)(论)(房)(地)(产)(还)(是)(地)(方)(债)(务)(,即)(使)(项)(目)(本)(身)(长)(期)(看)(好)(,由)(于)(其)(基)(本)(的)(形)(式)(都)(是)(短)(债)(长)(投)(,期)(限)(的)(不)(配)(套)(会)(增)(加)(诱)(发)(危)(机)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。
  当)(然)(,这)(些)(都)(属)(于)(国)(内)(的)(债)(务)(,类)(似)(日)(本)(、美)(国)(的)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(,也)(主)(要)(是)(内)(债)(。而)(国)(外)(真)(正)(变)(成)(系)(统)(危)(机)(的)(东)(亚)(金)(融)(危)(机)(、拉)(美)(危)(机)(、墨)(西)(哥)(危)(机)(以)(及)(现)(在)(的)(南)(欧)(危)(机)(,基)(本)(上)(都)(属)(于)(外)(债)(。所)(以)(我)(们)(对)(债)(务)(风)(险)(要)(高)(度)(重)(视)(,但)(也)(不)(需)(要)(危)(言)(耸)(听)(。
  对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(进)(行)(债)(务)(压)(力)(测)(试)(
  魏)(加)(宁)(负)(责)(的)(CF40内)(部)(课)(题)(“地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(风)(险)(综)(合)(化)(解)(方)(案)(研)(究)(”对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(的)(现)(状)(进)(行)(了)(系)(统)(全)(面)(的)(剖)(析)(,对)(如)(何)(解)(决)(新)(增)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(存)(在)(的)(期)(限)(不)(配)(套)(问)(题)(也)(提)(出)(了)(比)(较)(好)(的)(设)(想)(,同)(时)(也)(介)(绍)(了)(外)(国)(地)(方)(政)(府)(处)(理)(债)(务)(风)(险)(的)(经)(验)(,这)(些)(都)(很)(有)(参)(考)(价)(值)(。在)(总)(体)(肯)(定)(的)(同)(时)(,我)(也)(有)(几)(个)(建)(议)(:
  首)(先)(,对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(进)(行)(一)(些)(压)(力)(测)(试)(。地)(方)(债)(务)(出)(现)(危)(机)(往)(往)(是)(由)(于)(地)(方)(政)(府)(负)(担)(不)(起)(债)(务)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(包)(括)(:经)(济)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(,地)(方)(收)(入)(减)(少)(;真)(实)(利)(率)(上)(升)(,还)(债)(成)(本)(增)(加)(;房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(,土)(地)(出)(让)(金)(减)(少)(。建)(议)(对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(进)(行)(类)(似)(的)(压)(力)(测)(试)(,分)(析)(上)(述)(因)(素)(如)(若)(恶)(化)(,各)(地)(政)(府)(的)(承)(受)(能)(力)(。
  其)(次)(,进)(行)(更)(细)(致)(的)(成)(本)(效)(益)(分)(析)(。课)(题)(报)(告)(对)(化)(解)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(风)(险)(提)(出)(了)(若)(干)(对)(策)(,建)(议)(对)(每)(种)(对)(策)(的)(长)(短)(期)(成)(本)(和)(效)(果)(做)(些)(分)(析)(比)(较)(,以)(利)(政)(府)(决)(策)(时)(参)(考)(。
  再)(次)(,更)(加)(关)(注)(真)(实)(利)(率)(和)(通)(货)(紧)(缩)(。课)(题)(报)(告)(把)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(导)(致)(利)(率)(提)(高)(作)(为)(引)(爆)(地)(方)(债)(务)(风)(险)(的)(条)(件)(之)(一)(,此)(点)(有)(待)(商)(榷)(。发)(生)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(时)(,一)(般)(经)(济)(发)(展)(情)(况)(较)(好)(,地)(方)(税)(收)(增)(加)(,而)(且)(地)(价)(会)(较)(高)(,地)(方)(土)(地)(出)(让)(的)(收)(入)(也)(会)(增)(加)(,同)(时)(,真)(实)(利)(率)(也)(会)(较)(低)(,因)(此)(,发)(生)(债)(务)(的)(风)(险)(可)(能)(性)(较)(小)(。相)(反)(,当)(发)(生)(通)(货)(紧)(缩)(时)(,上)(述)(三)(个)(因)(素)(都)(可)(能)(会)(往)(相)(反)(的)(、不)(利)(的)(方)(向)(演)(变)(,发)(生)(地)(方)(债)(务)(的)(风)(险)(可)(能)(更)(高)(。
  最)(后)(,关)(于)(土)(地)(财)(政)(的)(局)(限)(性)(问)(题)(。课)(题)(报)(告)(在)(讨)(论)(地)(方)(财)(务)(的)(局)(限)(性)(时)(,以)(农)(民)(卖)(地)(得)(不)(到)(应)(有)(的)(回)(报)(抑)(制)(了)(农)(民)(的)(消)(费)(,作)(为)(消)(费)(提)(升)(难)(、发)(展)(方)(式)(转)(变)(难)(的)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。但)(是)(,能)(够)(得)(到)(土)(地)(增)(值)(收)(益)(的)(只)(是)(城)(郊)(的)(农)(民)(,数)(量)(很)(少)(。即)(使)(这)(些)(少)(数)(农)(民)(拿)(到)(了)(全)(部)(的)(收)(益)(,也)(不)(见)(得)(全)(部)(用)(于)(消)(费)(。因)(此)(,对)(我)(国)(的)(增)(长)(模)(式)(的)(影)(响)(可)(能)(有)(限)(。
  此)(外)(,报)(告)(中)(提)(到)(,由)(于)(土)(地)(财)(政)(推)(高)(地)(价)(,进)(而)(推)(高)(房)(价)(,导)(致)(城)(市)(居)(民)(大)(量)(储)(蓄)(用)(于)(购)(买)(住)(房)(,从)(而)(抑)(制)(城)(镇)(居)(民)(消)(费)(。房)(价)(是)(不)(是)(由)(土)(地)(财)(政)(推)(高)(的)(?这)(一)(点)(我)(有)(保)(留)(意)(见)(。因)(为)(地)(价)(的)(高)(低)(决)(定)(于)(土)(地)(的)(供)(给)(和)(需)(求)(,若)(地)(方)(政)(府)(真)(要)(推)(高)(地)(价)(则)(应)(该)(减)(少)(土)(地)(的)(供)(给)(,可)(是)(,一)(般)(的)(印)(象)(是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(卖)(地)(的)(积)(极)(性)(很)(高)(,因)(此)(,地)(价)(的)(偏)(高)(更)(有)(可)(能)(的)(原)(因)(是)(对)(土)(地)(需)(求)(的)(旺)(盛)(,而)(非)(地)(方)(政)(府)(减)(少)(供)(给)(造)(成)(。
  (作)(者)(系)(北)(京)(大)(学)(国)(家)(发)(展)(研)(究)(院)(教)(授)(。在)(近)(期)(召)(开)(的)(中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(内)(部)(课)(题)(评)(审)(会)(上)(,作)(者)(对)(论)(坛)(成)(员)(魏)(加)(宁)(负)(责)(的)(课)(题)(报)(告)(《地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(风)(险)(综)(合)(化)(解)(方)(案)(研)(究)(》进)(行)(了)(评)(审)(。本)(文)(为)(作)(者)(的)(评)(审)(发)(言)(,由)(中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(秘)(书)(处)(整)(理)(,经)(作)(者)(审)(核)(。)(编)(辑)(王)(梓)(马)(冬)(冬)()
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