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28天逆回购重启点评:反脱媒趋势下,资金成本趋于下降而非上升

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月23日 02:07:59
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(原)(标)(题)(:28天)(逆)(回)(购)(重)(启)(点)(评)(:反)(脱)(媒)(趋)(势)(下)(,资)(金)(成)(本)(趋)(于)(下)(降)(而)(非)(上)(升)(20160913
作)(者)(
陈)(健)(恒)(分)(析)(员)(,SAC执)(业)(证)(书)(编)(号)(:S0080511030011SFCCERef:BBM220
范)(阳)(阳)(分)(析)(员)(,SAC执)(业)(证)(书)(编)(号)(:S0080514040001
唐)(薇)(分)(析)(员)(,SAC执)(业)(证)(书)(编)(号)(:S0080515110005
中)(金)(固)(收)(研)(究)(团)(队)(感)(谢)(并)(需)(要)(您)(在)(新)(财)(富)(、水)(晶)(球)(评)(选)(中)(的)(支)(持)(!
事)(件)(
9月)(13日)(,央)(行)(重)(启)(28天)(逆)(回)(购)(,规)(模)(600亿)(元)(;中)(标)(利)(率)(2.55%,较)(上)(期)((年)(初)(春)(节)(2月)(5日)()的)(2.6%下)(降)(5bp。
9月)(13日)(,央)(行)(重)(启)(28天)(逆)(回)(购)(,规)(模)(600亿)(元)(;中)(标)(利)(率)(2.55%,较)(上)(期)((年)(初)(春)(节)(2月)(5日)()的)(2.6%下)(降)(5bp。
评)(论)(
央)(行)(在)(重)(启)(14天)(逆)(回)(购)(之)(后)(再)(度)(重)(启)(28天)(逆)(回)(购)(引)(发)(关)(注)(。由)(于)(临)(近)(国)(庆)(假)(期)(,28天)(逆)(回)(购)(由)(于)(跨)(节)(,更)(有)(助)(于)(资)(金)(面)(的)(平)(稳)(,这)(可)(能)(是)(重)(启)(28天)(逆)(回)(购)(的)(重)(要)(考)(虑)(因)(素)(。另)(外)(,与)(此)(前)(重)(启)(14天)(逆)(回)(购)(一)(脉)(相)(承)(的)(是)(,通)(过)(延)(长)(资)(金)(投)(放)(期)(限)(,适)(度)(引)(导)(融)(出)(机)(构)(延)(长)(融)(出)(资)(金)(期)(限)(和)(提)(升)(融)(出)(资)(金)(成)(本)(,有)(助)(于)(防)(范)(债)(券)(杠)(杆)(过)(高)(。
具)(体)(而)(言)(:
这)(次)(28天)(逆)(回)(购)(重)(启)(的)(利)(率)(为)(2.55%,比)(今)(年)(春)(节)(操)(作)(时)(降)(了)(5bp,在)(适)(度)(延)(长)(投)(放)(期)(限)(的)(同)(时)(小)(幅)(下)(调)(利)(率)(也)(体)(现)(了)(更)(为)(中)(性)(的)(信)(号)(。目)(前)(央)(行)(流)(动)(性)(投)(放)(工)(具)(的)(期)(限)(已)(经)(较)(为)(完)(备)(,包)(括)(7天)(、14天)(、28天)(逆)(回)(购)(、3个)(月)(、6个)(月)(和)(1年)(期)(MLF,还)(有)(期)(限)(更)(长)(的)(PSL,这)(些)(工)(具)(也)(形)(成)(了)(一)(条)(向)(上)(平)(滑)(的)(利)(率)(曲)(线)(,从)(7天)(逆)(回)(购)(的)(2.25%到)(1年)(期)(MLF的)(3.0%(如)(图)(1)。对)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,在)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(仍)(偏)(流)(出)(的)(环)(境)(下)(,流)(动)(性)(投)(放)(工)(具)(期)(限)(的)(延)(长)(有)(助)(于)(平)(稳)(资)(金)(面)(,某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(替)(代)(降)(准)(的)(功)(效)(。
但)(投)(资)(者)(所)(担)(心)(的)(是)(,流)(动)(性)(投)(放)(工)(具)(的)(延)(长)(会)(对)(金)(融)(体)(系)(资)(金)(成)(本)(有)(所)(抬)(升)(,从)(而)(推)(高)(利)(率)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(央)(行)(流)(动)(性)(投)(放)(工)(具)(所)(投)(放)(的)(资)(金)(只)(是)(银)(行)(负)(债)(端)(资)(金)(来)(源)(的)(一)(部)(分)(,并)(非)(全)(部)(,不)(会)(完)(全)(决)(定)(银)(行)(的)(综)(合)(资)(金)(成)(本)(。事)(实)(上)(银)(行)(还)(有)(相)(当)(大)(的)(一)(部)(分)(资)(金)(来)(源)(是)(普)(通)(存)(款)(。不)(算)(同)(业)(存)(款)(和)(财)(政)(存)(款)(,今)(年)(前)(7个)(月)(银)(行)(的)(普)(通)(存)(款)(增)(加)(了)(8.8万)(亿)(,其)(中)(住)(户)(存)(款)(增)(加)(3.3万)(亿)(,企)(业)(存)(款)(增)(加)(3.2万)(亿)(,机)(关)(团)(体)(存)(款)(增)(加)(2.3万)(亿)(。今)(年)(存)(款)(的)(活)(期)(化)(趋)(势)(明)(显)(,无)(论)(是)(企)(业)(存)(款)(还)(是)(居)(民)(存)(款)(,活)(期)(存)(款)(的)(增)(速)(都)(明)(显)(快)(于)(定)(期)(存)(款)(,而)(机)(关)(团)(体)(存)(款)(大)(部)(分)(也)(是)(活)(期)(存)(款)(。即)(使)(在)(不)(降)(息)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,由)(于)(活)(期)(存)(款)(的)(占)(比)(在)(提)(升)(,银)(行)(存)(款)(端)(的)(资)(金)(平)(均)(成)(本)(也)(在)(下)(降)(,政)(策)(性)(银)(行)(和)(具)(有)(网)(点)(优)(势)(的)(大)(型)(国)(有)(银)(行)(的)(资)(金)(成)(本)(更)(低)(,平)(均)(在)(2%以)(下)(。
随)(着)(居)(民)(加)(杠)(杆)(和)(政)(府)(加)(杠)(杆)(,而)(企)(业)(杠)(杆)(放)(缓)(,融)(资)(的)(工)(具)(更)(多)(向)(房)(贷)(、国)(债)(和)(地)(方)(债)(集)(中)(,这)(些)(产)(品)(更)(适)(合)(银)(行)(表)(内)(运)(营)(,因)(此)(表)(外)(业)(务)(在)(逐)(步)(放)(缓)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(产)(品)(结)(构)(不)(对)(接)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(是)(没)(有)(成)(本)(优)(势)(。随)(着)(同)(业)(业)(务)(、银)(行)(理)(财)(和)(保)(险)(保)(费)(的)(逐)(步)(放)(缓)(,加)(上)(监)(管)(机)(构)(对)(各)(类)(型)(杠)(杆)((不)(限)(于)(债)(券)(杠)(杆)(,还)(包)(括)(各)(种)(金)(融)(运)(作)(的)(杠)(杆)()的)(管)(控)(,未)(来)(金)(融)(体)(系)(的)(资)(金)(流)(动)(会)(放)(缓)(。在)(各)(种)(高)(成)(本)(业)(务)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,资)(金)(业)(务)(驱)(动)(将)(重)(新)(回)(到)(银)(行)(表)(内)(,即)(2012年)(各)(类)(非)(标)(业)(务)(繁)(荣)(前)(的)(状)(态)(,金)(融)(从)(脱)(媒)(逐)(步)(回)(到)(反)(脱)(媒)(状)(态)(。尽)(管)(目)(前)(各)(类)(资)(产)(的)(收)(益)(率)(不)(高)(,但)(银)(行)(表)(内)(的)(存)(款)(负)(债)(的)(成)(本)(仍)(具)(有)(优)(势)((如)(图)(2),表)(内)(驱)(动)(使)(得)(资)(产)(利)(率)(仍)(会)(缓)(慢)(下)(行)(;尤)(其)(是)(银)(行)(自)(营)(资)(金)(比)(较)(偏)(好)(的)(国)(债)(和)(地)(方)(债)(类)(资)(产)(,这)(些)(债)(券)(考)(虑)(免)(税)(价)(值)(的)(收)(益)(率)(仍)(普)(遍)(在)(3%以)(上)(,对)(于)(自)(营)(资)(金)(而)(言)(仍)(有)(息)(差)(。对)(于)(这)(些)(有)(成)(本)(优)(势)(的)(银)(行)(而)(言)(,回)(购)(融)(出)(也)(依)(然)(是)(赚)(钱)(的)(,而)(且)(其)(考)(虑)(的)(不)(完)(全)(的)(盈)(利)(问)(题)(,也)(会)(考)(虑)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(问)(题)(,即)(1天)(回)(购)(对)(这)(些)(金)(融)(机)(构)(而)(言)(仍)(有)(管)(理)(流)(动)(性)(的)(便)(利)(优)(势)(,不)(会)(导)(致)(短)(期)(回)(购)(的)(融)(出)(大)(幅)(萎)(缩)((如)(图)(3)。
考)(虑)(到)(反)(脱)(媒)(趋)(势)(下)(,资)(金)(逐)(步)(回)(到)(表)(内)(驱)(动)(,未)(来)(资)(金)(成)(本)(和)(资)(产)(利)(率)(仍)(会)(逐)(步)(缓)(慢)(回)(落)(。而)(货)(币)(政)(策)(仍)(会)(根)(据)(经)(济)(环)(境)(而)(动)(态)(调)(整)(。如)(果)(未)(来)(经)(济)(和)(通)(胀)(下)(行)(压)(力)(增)(加)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(适)(度)(放)(松)(和)(引)(导)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(下)(行)(,那)(么)(整)(体)(利)(率)(的)(下)(行)(速)(度)(会)(加)(快)(。
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