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欧洲央行周四利率决议最大看点!警惕这一宽松措辞被剔除

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月23日 06:33:39
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(根)(据)(外)(媒)(上)(周)(所)(作)(出)(的)(调)(查)(显)(示)(,受)(欧)(元)(强)(势)(影)(响)(,欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(料)(失)(去)(一)(些)(增)(长)(动)(力)(,而)(且)(至)(少)(未)(来)(两)(年)(通)(胀)(仍)(料)(远)(低)(于)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(目)(标)(水)(准)(。为)(了)(让)(通)(胀)(率)(回)(到)(目)(标)(水)(准)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(自)(2015年)(以)(来)(已)(购)(买)(逾)(2万)(亿)(欧)(元)(资)(产)(,其)(中)(主)(要)(为)(公)(债)(。
调)(查)(还)(显)(示)(,虽)(然)(预)(计)(本)(周)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(会)(议)(上)(不)(会)(有)(重)(大)(调)(整)(,但)(有)(近)(三)(分)(之)(一)(的)(受)(访)(者)(称)(,该)(央)(行)(将)(在)(这)(次)(会)(议)(上)(放)(弃)(对)(资)(产)(购)(买)(的)(宽)(松)(倾)(向)(。
包)(括)(这)(些)(受)(访)(者)(在)(内)(,逾)(70%的)(分)(析)(师)(预)(期)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(将)(在)(6月)(会)(议)(或)(之)(前)(宣)(布)(这)(个)(决)(定)(。剩)(余)(三)(分)(之)(一)(的)(分)(析)(师)(预)(测)(,该)(央)(行)(会)(在)(明)(年)(初)(以)(前)(的)(某)(个)(时)(候)(宣)(布)(。
另)(外)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(料)(将)(在)(明)(年)(第)(二)(季)(把)(存)(款)(利)(率)(上)(调)(15个)(基)(点)(至)(负)(0.25%,到)(2019年)(底)(时)(调)(高)(到)(零)(。该)(央)(行)(还)(料)(将)(在)(明)(年)(把)(主)(要)(再)(融)(资)(利)(率)(上)(调)(一)(次)(,可)(能)(是)(在)(第)(三)(季)(上)(调)(25个)(基)(点)(至)(0.25%。
GeneraliInvestments资)(深)(分)(析)(师)(MartinWolburg还)(指)(出)(,在)(欧)(元)(走)(强)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(将)(不)(急)(于)(升)(息)(。
德)(拉)(基)(这)(次)(又)(会)(说)(些)(什)(么)(?
相)(比)(利)(率)(决)(议)(,市)(场)(可)(能)(更)(关)(心)(会)(后)(的)(德)(拉)(基)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(,预)(计)(德)(拉)(基)(本)(次)(发)(言)(仍)(旧)(偏)(保)(守)(,他)(近)(期)(对)(欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(展)(望)(较)(为)(审)(慎)(,反)(映)(他)(坚)(持)(央)(行)(必)(须)(要)(有)(耐)(心)(,持)(续)(支)(持)(欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(,否)(则)(恐)(危)(及)(期)(盼)(已)(久)(的)(通)(胀)(回)(升)(。
值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(,德)(拉)(基)(的)(坚)(持)(与)(有)(些)(管)(理)(委)(员)(会)(委)(员)(意)(见)(相)(左)(。有)(些)(委)(员)(开)(始)(`)(说)(,希)(望)(展)(开)(退)(出)(程)(序)(,要)(求)(放)(弃)(延)(长)(资)(产)(购)(买)(的)(选)(项)(,不)(过)(在)(1月)(份)(的)(会)(议)(并)(无)(结)(果)(。
“有)(些)(委)(员)(似)(乎)(非)(常)(担)(心)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(沟)(通)(小)(小)(的)(变)(化)(有)(可)(能)(会)(引)(发)(市)(场)(过)(度)(强)(烈)(的)(反)(应)(,”DekaBank驻)(法)(兰)(克)(福)(经)(济)(学)(家)(KristianToedtmann说)(。“因)(此)(,只)(有)(在)(能)(够)(加)(强)(对)(政)(策)(利)(率)(指)(引)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(才)(应)(减)(少)(其)(对)(资)(产)(购)(买)(的)(前)(瞻)(指)(引)(。”
此)(外)(,德)(拉)(基)(也)(可)(能)(会)(重)(申)(1月)(发)(出)(过)(的)(讯)(息)(,即)(如)(果)(美)(国)(寻)(求)(口)(头)(打)(压)(美)(元)(以)(获)(得)(贸)(易)(竞)(争)(优)(势)(,该)(行)(可)(令)(能)(不)(得)(不)(重)(新)(讨)(论)(政)(策)(。
不)(过)(,鉴)(于)(经)(济)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(仍)(可)(能)(将)(在)(今)(年)(底)(结)(束)(2.55万)(亿)(欧)(元)((3.14万)(亿)(美)(元)()的)(购)(债)(措)(施)(,因)(相)(信)(通)(胀)(终)(将)(上)(升)(,尽)(管)(只)(会)(缓)(慢)(上)(升)(。
虽)(然)(德)(拉)(基)(不)(大)(可)(能)(强)(调)(退)(出)(前)(景)(,但)(也)(不)(可)(能)(完)(全)(打)(消)(这)(种)(前)(景)(,要)(是)(这)(样)(做)(,将)(会)(被)(投)(资)(者)(视)(为)(确)(认)(了)(他)(们)(的)(基)(础)(情)(景)(假)(设)(,这)(些)(假)(设)(包)(括)(继)(短)(时)(间)(缩)(减)(购)(债)(之)(后)(于)(12月)(停)(止)(购)(债)(,以)(及)(在)(2019年)(中)(期)(升)(息)(。
丹)(斯)(克)(银)(行)((DanskeBank)外)(汇)(策)(略)(研)(究)(团)(队)(上)(周)(六)(发)(布)(报)(告)(称)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(可)(能)(会)(在)(3月)(会)(议)(上)(删)(除)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(的)(灵)(活)(性)(措)(辞)(,届)(时)(将)(提)(振)(欧)(元)(/美)(元)(,但)(之)(后)(行)(长)(德)(拉)(基)(在)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(上)(可)(能)(保)(持)(温)(和)(的)(基)(调)(。
报)(告)(显)(示)(:“在)(我)(们)(看)(来)(,目)(前)(最)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(保)(持)(了)(继)(续)(朝)(着)(货)(币)(政)(策)(‘正)(常)(化)(’迈)(进)(的)(意)(识)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(这)(将)(使)(欧)(元)(/美)(元)(在)(今)(年)(内)(触)(及)(1.28水)(平)(。”
瑞)(穗)(银)(行)((MizuhoBank)驻)(东)(京)(的)(首)(席)(市)(场)(经)(济)(学)(家)(DaisukeKarakama周)(一)(表)(示)(,欧)(元)(今)(年)(最)(大)(的)(焦)(点)(并)(非)(欧)(元)(区)(政)(治)(,而)(是)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(能)(否)(解)(除)(其)(量)(化)(宽)(松)((QE)政)(策)(。
Karakama指)(出)(,欧)(洲)(央)(行)(是)(否)(也)(可)(以)(开)(始)(讨)(论)(调)(整)(利)(率)(,这)(是)(另)(一)(个)(焦)(点)(。不)(过)(,由)(于)(欧)(元)(区)(通)(胀)(疲)(软)(且)(欧)(银)(对)(欧)(元)(汇)(率)(强)(势)(感)(到)(不)(满)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(是)(否)(会)(出)(现)(值)(得)(怀)(疑)(。
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