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外管局:不能过度解读美国加息冲击

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月23日 07:24:18
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(  视)(频)(:中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(:多)(因)(素)(致)(我)(国)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(变)(动)(来)(源)(:央)(视)(新)(闻)(  中)(新)(网)(10月)(22日)(电)(国)(家)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(局)(副)(局)(长)(王)(小)(奕)(今)(日)(表)(示)(,美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(会)(给)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(带)(来)(一)(定)(影)(响)(,但)(中)(国)(有)(能)(力)(和)(信)(心)(应)(对)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(。他)(强)(调)(,美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,特)(别)(是)(处)(在)(加)(息)(通)(道)(前)(夕)(时)(,对)(国)(际)(经)(济)(以)(及)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(确)(实)(不)(小)(,但)(这)(种)(影)(响)(也)(不)(能)(过)(度)(解)(读)(,加)(息)(并)(不)(意)(味)(着)(全)(球)(经)(济)(崩)(溃)(或)(者)(整)(个)(资)(金)(都)(流)(向)(美)(国)(。  国)(新)(办)(22日)(举)(行)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(,请)(国)(家)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(局)(副)(局)(长)(王)(小)(奕)(、新)(闻)(发)(言)(人)(王)(春)(英)(介)(绍)(2015年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(外)(汇)(收)(支)(数)(据)(有)(关)(情)(况)(,并)(答)(记)(者)(问)(。  针)(对)(如)(何)(看)(待)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(对)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(影)(响)(,王)(小)(奕)(表)(示)(,美)(联)(储)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(取)(向)(对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(以)(及)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(不)(容)(忽)(视)(。美)(国)(是)(全)(球)(最)(大)(的)(经)(济)(体)(,最)(主)(要)(国)(际)(货)(币)(的)(发)(行)(国)(,所)(以)(一)(直)(关)(注)(美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(走)(向)(对)(中)(国)(的)(影)(响)(,尤)(其)(是)(对)(国)(际)(收)(支)(的)(影)(响)(。第)(一)(,美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(,包)(括)(结)(束)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(和)(加)(息)(预)(期)(,对)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(的)(影)(响)(正)(在)(逐)(步)(显)(现)(。今)(年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(,市)(场)(对)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(预)(期)(的)(强)(弱)(、美)(元)(走)(势)(的)(强)(弱)(,在)(不)(同)(阶)(段)(对)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(产)(生)(了)(不)(同)(影)(响)(。一)(季)(度)(,我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(出)(压)(力)(较)(大)(;二)(季)(度)(,美)(元)(升)(值)(势)(头)(减)(弱)(,我)(国)(跨)(境)(收)(支)(趋)(于)(基)(本)(平)(衡)(;三)(季)(度)(,流)(出)(压)(力)(又)(有)(所)(增)(强)(。  王)(小)(奕)(指)(出)(,美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,特)(别)(是)(处)(在)(加)(息)(通)(道)(前)(夕)(时)(,对)(国)(际)(经)(济)(以)(及)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(确)(实)(不)(小)(,但)(这)(种)(影)(响)(也)(不)(能)(过)(度)(解)(读)(,加)(息)(并)(不)(意)(味)(着)(全)(球)(经)(济)(崩)(溃)(或)(者)(整)(个)(资)(金)(都)(流)(向)(美)(国)(。从)(历)(史)(情)(况)(看)(,美)(联)(储)(政)(策)(对)(全)(球)(影)(响)(也)(是)(有)(区)(别)(的)(。90年)(代)(中)(期)(和)(90年)(代)(末)(的)(两)(次)(加)(息)(,确)(实)(触)(发)(了)(部)(分)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(的)(资)(本)(大)(量)(流)(出)(。2004年)(到)(2006年)(期)(间)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(并)(没)(有)(导)(致)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(资)(本)(流)(出)(,大)(多)(数)(经)(济)(体)(经)(历)(了)(持)(续)(的)(流)(入)(。所)(以)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(和)(国)(际)(资)(本)(流)(动)(并)(没)(有)(绝)(对)(的)(直)(接)(因)(果)(关)(系)(。  王)(小)(奕)(认)(为)(,从)(历)(史)(经)(验)(看)(,影)(响)(一)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(包)(括)(三)(个)(:一)(是)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(基)(本)(面)(良)(好)(是)(抵)(御)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(的)(基)(本)(保)(障)(,二)(是)(灵)(活)(的)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(和)(有)(序)(的)(资)(本)(账)(户)(开)(放)(之)(间)(的)(协)(调)(也)(很)(重)(要)(,三)(是)(在)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(中)(需)(要)(加)(强)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(管)(理)(,防)(止)(过)(度)(的)(流)(出)(和)(流)(入)(。  “从)(我)(国)(的)(现)(实)(情)(况)(看)(,美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(会)(给)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(带)(来)(一)(定)(影)(响)(,但)(我)(们)(有)(能)(力)(和)(信)(心)(应)(对)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(。”王)(小)(奕)(强)(调)(。他)(还)(指)(出)(,美)(元)(走)(强)(增)(加)(外)(汇)(融)(资)(成)(本)(,对)(于)(部)(分)(外)(债)(负)(担)(较)(重)(、期)(限)(和)(货)(币)(错)(配)(较)(突)(出)(的)(企)(业)(,将)(会)(面)(临)(较)(大)(的)(经)(营)(风)(险)(和)(调)(整)(压)(力)(。但)(是)(,美)(元)(加)(息)(或)(者)(美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(对)(我)(国)(的)(影)(响)(也)(存)(在)(积)(极)(的)(一)(面)(。第)(一)(,如)(果)(美)(联)(储)(做)(出)(加)(息)(决)(定)(,说)(明)(美)(国)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(步)(入)(正)(常)(轨)(道)(,之)(所)(以)(近)(期)(美)(联)(储)(仍)(在)(犹)(豫)(,就)(是)(因)(为)(美)(国)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(还)(不)(稳)(固)(。一)(旦)(美)(国)(经)(济)(进)(入)(了)(持)(续)(的)(复)(苏)(轨)(道)(,有)(利)(于)(我)(国)(扩)(大)(外)(需)(。第)(二)(,美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(将)(进)(一)(步)(分)(化)(国)(际)(社)(会)(包)(括)(投)(资)(者)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(的)(预)(期)(,有)(利)(于)(中)(国)(抓)(住)(时)(机)(推)(进)(和)(加)(快)(相)(关)(改)(革)(。此)(外)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(也)(是)(一)(个)(渐)(进)(的)(过)(程)(,美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(多)(次)(强)(调)(这)(不)(是)(短)(期)(的)(小)(步)(快)(走)(,而)(是)(较)(长)(期)(的)(过)(程)(,相)(关)(影)(响)(也)(会)(逐)(渐)(地)(被)(消)(化)(吸)(收)(。最)(后)(,王)(小)(奕)(强)(调)(,我)(国)(经)(济)(基)(本)(面)(依)(然)(良)(好)(,抵)(御)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(的)(能)(力)(较)(强)(。  “当)(然)(,我)(们)(非)(常)(重)(视)(、也)(会)(积)(极)(应)(对)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(溢)(出)(效)(应)(和)(影)(响)(。首)(先)(,我)(们)(要)(做)(好)(自)(己)(的)(事)(情)(,保)(持)(国)(内)(经)(济)(在)(合)(理)(区)(间)(内)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(。其)(次)(,作)(为)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(部)(门)(,要)(继)(续)(加)(强)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(监)(测)(预)(警)(,加)(快)(推)(进)(相)(关)(改)(革)(特)(别)(是)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(发)(展)(,加)(大)(对)(市)(场)(主)(体)(的)(风)(险)(教)(育)(和)(引)(导)(,进)(一)(步)(提)(高)(数)(据)(透)(明)(度)(,帮)(助)(市)(场)(主)(体)(做)(出)(理)(性)(判)(断)(。”王)(小)(奕)(最)(后)(指)(出)(。
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